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Stochastic Models

Many systems in Nature evolve randomly over time. For example, biological processes, chemical processes, the stock market, and transportation and telecommunications systems. To control and optimize various aspects of the system in question requires an accurate prediction of the future behaviour of the system. Stochastic processes have been used as appropriate tools to model these systems in modern science, technology and business. For example, they have been used in the prediction of populations, in the control of the spread of epidemics, in the management of investment portfolios, and in the dimensioning of telecommunications networks.

This course is designed for anyone in mathematics, biological science, chemistry, computer science, engineering, finance, physics, and other disciplines who is likely to encounter random processes in their study or future work. Prerequisite for this course is Math 451 Probability Theory. Calculus and linear algebra background is assumed.

This course will cover the following topics: Discrete Markov Chains, Poisson Processes, Continuous-time Markov chains, random walks, and Brownian motion. Stochastic models from a variety of fields will be considered.

Office Hours on Wednesday 12:30-2:30pm; Thursday 1-3 pm. Or by appointment fuchang@uidaho.edu

Homework (30%) will be assigned in class.
Three Exams (15% each) are scheduled on the dates specified below.
Final Exam (25%) is on Thursday, May 8 at 10am-12pm.
Grades are determined by: A>=90%; 80%<=B<90%; 70%<=C<80%; 60%<=D<70%; F<60%.

Tentative Schedule

Week
 
Monday
 
Wednesday
 
Friday
 
1/9-1/11 Introduction; Review: Major discrete distributions Review: Major continuous distributions
1/14-1/18 Review: Tail probabilities and useful formulas. Review: conditional probability, conditional expection Review: Random sums. HW 1 due.
1/21-1/25 No class Markov Chain: definition, and transition matrix 3.1-3.2 Markov chain: some models
1/28-2/1 Markov chain: first step analysis. First step analysis continue; Special Markov chains Special Markov chains. HW 2 due
2/4-2/8 Random walks General random walks Branching Processes.
2/11-2/15 Branching processes (continued). HW 3 due Review Exam 1
Practice Problems with solutions
2/18-2/22 No class Long Run Behavior of Markov Chains. Regular Transition matrices Some examples
2/25-2/29 Classification Limit Theorems Redicible Markov chains. HW 4 due
3/3-3/7 Poisson Processes Law of rare events Distributions
3/10-3/14   Have a wonderful Spring Break!
 
 
3/17-3/21 Spatial Poisson Compound Poisson (Reserved for pace adjust.) HW 5 due
3/24-3/28 Review Exam 2 Continuous Markov Chain: pure birth
3/31-4/4 Continuous markov chain: pure death Birth and death processes Limiting behavior of birth-death processes. HW 6 due
4/7-4/11 With Absorbing states With Finite states (Reserved for pace adjust.)
4/14-4/18 Gaussian processes Brownian motion Supremum of Brownian motion, reflection principle. HW 7 due
4/21-4/25 Variations and extensions: Brownian bridge Review Exam 3
4/28-5/2 Brownian motion wth drift O-U processe. HW 8 due Final Review
5/5-5/9   Good luck on finals!
Final Exam on Thursday, May 8. 10am-12pm