CE 541/ME 583 - Reliability of Engineering Systems

This course describes how to determine the probability individual components (e.g., beams, columns or connections) will fail and the probability that a system of these components (e.g., a structural frame) will fail. In a philosophical sense, it helps one realize that engineers can't guarantee a given outcome, rather we are providing reasonable odds that the outcome will be as desired. It also helps an engineer view things from a systems perspective, e.g., whether or not redundancy improves the reliability of the system -- it doesn't always -- and how reliable each component must be to improve the reliability of the system. These concepts form the basis of performance-based design.

All the current LRFD structural and geotechnical design codes are derived from reliability concepts. The course describes how these codes are derived.

Syllabus for CE 541/ME 583 - Fall 2010

Details regarding class organization... and Engineering Outreach and Contact information

Class Date Topic Assignment
1 Aug 23 Introduction Get Adobe® Acrobat® Reader ™
2 Aug 25 Review of Probability  
3 Aug 27 Probability Distributions Homework #1
4 Aug 30 Extreme Value Distributions; Mathcad Example (PDF) Right-click on the Mathcad link, save the Mathcad file to your computer, then open it with Mathcad. (Internet Explorer will offer to change the file type to ".XML" instead of ".xmcd". Insist on the ".xmcd" file type.)  
5 Sep 1 Asympotitic Distributions; Gumbel's Classifications Homework #2
6 Sep 3 Order Statistics; Order Stat Ex, (PDF) Spreadsheet  
  Sep 6 Labor Day  
7 Sep 8 Bayes' Theorem, Bayes' Theorem Example, (PDF)
8 Sep 10 Transformation of Variables; Mathcad Example (PDF)
9 Sep 13 The Reliability Problem Homework #3
10 Sep 15 Second Moment Formulations
11 Sep 17 Linear Limit States, Example (PDF)
12 Sep 20 Invariant Formulations 3.6 and Homework #4
13 Sep 22 Nonlinear Limit States (PDF)  
14 Sep 24 Transformation Methods
15 Sep 27 Examples (PDF), Example 2 (PDF) 5.1 and Homework #5
16 Sep 29 Determination of the Safety Index
17 Oct 1 Monte Carlo Simulation  
18 Oct 4 Examples: Mathcad, (PDF), FOSM comparison (PDF) 5.4 and Homework #6
19 Oct 6 EXAM #1 (Old Exam)  
20 Oct 8 Importance Sampling; Example (PDF) Project Assignment
21 Oct 11 Latin Hypercube Sampling, 4.1, 12
22 Oct 13 Latin Hypercube Example (PDF)  
23 Oct 15 Antithetic Sampling; Antithetic Sampling Example (PDF) Comparison
24 Oct 18 Correlated Random Variables, Example, (PDF) Project Proposal
25 Oct 20 System Reliability Homework #9
26 Oct 22 Series System Probability Bounds
27 Oct 25 Ditlevsen Bounds, Example (PDF)
28 Oct 27 Parallel Systems  
29 Oct 29 Probability Evaluation 9.1
30 Nov 1 Approximate Methods, Spreadsheet Project Progress Report
31 Nov 3 Event Trees  
32 Nov 5 Codes and Structural Reliability, Example (PDF) Homework #11
33 Nov 8 Exam #2 Old Exam
34 Nov 10 Code Calibration, Mechanistic Empirical Pavement Design Guide  
35 Nov 12 Modeling of Uncertainty
36 Nov 15 Quantification of Uncertainty 8.2, 3
37 Nov 17 Distributions  
38 Nov 19 Human Error Project Progress Report
Nov 22-26 Thanksgiving Recess  
39 Nov 29 Time Dependent Reliability
40 Dec 1 Discrete Processes Homework #13
41 Dec 3 EXAM #3 Old Exam, Excel Sol'n
42 Dec 6 Discrete Process Examples, Mathcad Worksheets: 1 year, 50 years, tL years, pdf worksheets: 1 year, 50 years, tL years,  
43 Dec 8 Fatigue, Example, (PDF)  
44 Dec 10 Presentations
47 Dec 15 7:30 A.M. - Presentations

The reading assignments should be completed before each lecture.

Homework is due on the dates shown.