CE 541/ME 583 - Reliability of Engineering Systems

This course describes how to determine the probability individual components (e.g., beams, columns or connections) will fail and the probability that a system of these components (e.g., a structural frame) will fail. In a philosophical sense, it helps one realize that engineers can't guarantee a given outcome, rather we are providing reasonable odds that the outcome will be as desired. It also helps an engineer view things from a systems perspective, e.g., whether or not redundancy improves the reliability of the system -- it doesn't always -- and how reliable each component must be to improve the reliability of the system. These concepts form the basis of performance-based design.

All the current LRFD structural and geotechnical design codes are derived from reliability concepts. The course describes how these codes are derived.

Syllabus for CE 541/ME 583 - Fall 2018

Details regarding class organization... and Engineering Outreach and Contact information

Class

Date

Topic

Assignment

1

Aug 20

Introduction

 

2

Aug 22

Review of Probability

 

3

Aug 24

Probability Distributions

Homework #1

4

Aug 27

Extreme Value Distributions; Mathcad Example

 

5

Aug 29

Asympotitic Distributions; Gumbel's Classifications

Homework #2

6

Aug 31

Order Statistics; Order Stat Ex, Spreadsheet

 

 

Sep 3

Labor Day

 

7

Sep 5

Bayes' Theorem, Bayes' Theorem Example

8

Sep 7

Transformation of Variables; Mathcad Example

9

Sep 10

The Reliability Problem

Homework #3

10

Sep 12

Second Moment Formulations

11

Sep 14

Linear Limit States, Example

12

Sep 17

Invariant Formulations

3.6 and Homework #4

13

Sep 19

Nonlinear Limit States

 

14

Sep 21

Transformation Methods

15

Sep 24

Example 1, Example 2

5.1 and Homework #5

16

Sep 26

Determination of the Safety Index

17

Sep 28

Monte Carlo Simulation

 

18

Oct 1

Examples: Mathcad, FOSM comparison

5.4 and Homework #6

19

Oct 3

EXAM #1 (Old Exam)

 

20

Oct 5

Importance Sampling; Example

Project Assignment

21

Oct 8

Latin Hypercube Sampling,

4.1, 12

22

Oct 10

Latin Hypercube Example

 

23

Oct 12

Antithetic Sampling; Antithetic Sampling Example. Comparison

24

Oct 15

Correlated Random Variables, Example

Project Proposal

25

Oct 17

System Reliability

Homework #9

26

Oct 19

Series System Probability Bounds

27

Oct 22

Ditlevsen Bounds, Example

28

Oct 24

Parallel Systems

 

29

Oct 26

Enumeration Methods for System Reliability

9.1

30

 

Oct 29

 

Probabilistic Enumeration Methods for System Reliability

Project Progress Report

31

Oct 31

Element Replacement Techniques

 

32

Nov 2

Codes and Structural Reliability, Example

Homework #11

33

Nov 5

Exam #2

Old Exam

34

Nov 7

Code Calibration, Mechanistic Empirical Pavement Design Guide

 

35

Nov 9

Modeling of Uncertainty

36

Nov 12

Quantification of Uncertainty

8.2, 3

37

Nov 14

Distributions

 

38

 

Nov 16

Human Error

Project Progress Report

Nov

19-23

Thanksgiving Recess

 

39

Nov 26

Time Dependent Reliability

40

Nov 28

Discrete Processes

Homework #13

41

Nov 30

EXAM #3

Old Exam, Excel Sol'n

42

Dec 3

Discrete Process Examples, Mathcad Worksheets: 1 year, 50 years, tL years

 

43

Dec 5

Fatigue, Example

 

44

Dec 7

Presentations

47

Dec 12

 12: 45 P.M. Presentations

The reading assignments should be completed before each lecture.

Homework is due on the dates shown.