Stat 431: Statistical Analysis

Fall 2012, University of Idaho, Section 01, CRN 36142

Instructor: Brian Dennis
Professor, Department of Statistical Science
316 Phinney, 208-885-7423, brian@uidaho.edu

Office hours: 1:30-3:00PM Mon, Tues, Wed, Thur

Meeting times & places:
Lecture: MWF 9:30-10:20AM TLC 045

Textbook:
Ott, R.L. & Longnecker, M. 2010. An Introduction to Statistical Methods and Data Analysis, Sixth Edition. Brooks/Cole, Belmont, CA.

Other materials:
You should bring a scientific calculator (w/ memory, square root, logarithms) to tests.

Other resources:

Stat Assistance Center (SAC): first floor Library, 885-2929, for help with this course

Statistics Consulting Center (SCC): Call 885-2929 for an appointment, for statistics advice concerning research or thesis

Grades:
Based on 600 possible points, 90% A, 80% B, and so on

• Three tests (open book), 100 points each
• One partly comprehensive final (open book), 100 points
• Four take-home computer-aided assignments, 50 points each
1. Assignment One

USA economy data

2. Assignment Two
3. Assignment Three
4. Assignment Four

house selling prices data

• Exercises assigned, but not graded (selected exercises may appear on tests)

Makeup tests: Makeup tests will not be given, except for legitimate scheduled university activities or grave, urgent reasons. Prior arrangements with instructor are required.

Final exam rescheduling: By Department of Statistical Science policy, no student may reschedule the final exam without permission of the Department Chair.

SAS documentation:

Introduction to SAS (dated, but informative for ordinary uses of SAS)

SAS online documentation

All the SAS examples you could possibly want

UCLA SAS starter kit

Introduction and documentation for PROC MIXED (pdf of now-defunct but informative website at Univ Kentucky)

The amazing, free R language for statistics, graphics, and computing

SAS examples for class: R examples:

summary statistics summary statistics

batting average simulation batting average simulation

one-sample t-test example one-sample t-test example

two-sample t-test example two-sample t-test example

analysis of variance example

two binomial proportions example

multinomial model example

two-way table example

homogeneous proportions example, PROC FREQ

homogeneous proportions example

linear regression example

linear regression with GPLOT graphics

multiple regression example one

multiple regression example two

AOV by regression example

nonlinear regression example

logistic regression example

simple random sample example

AOV power calculation example

randomized complete block design

Latin square design example

two-factor AOV example

unbalanced AOV example

three-factor AOV example

analysis of covariance example

generalized linear models examples:

Poisson regression

Gamma distribution

random and mixed effects examples:

random effects ex 1: PROC GLM

random effects ex 2: PROC MIXED

mixed effects example

MINITAB documentation:

Intro Handbook by Minitab, Inc

Georgetown University MINITAB intro

Course evaluations

Topics & Readings (might change!)
Aug 20 introduction	Aug 22 Ch 4 probability distributions	Aug 24 probability distributions
Aug 27 probability distributions, continued	Aug 29 Getting started with SAS	Aug 31 sampling distributions
Sep 3 no class: Labor Day university closed	Sep 5 Ch 5 inferences for central values	Sep 7 inferences for central values, continued
Sep 10 Ch 6 inferences for comparing two central values	Sep 12 comparing two central values, continued	Sep 14 Ch 7 inferences about variances
Sep 17 Ch 8 1-way AOV	Sep 19 1-way AOV	Sep 21 Test 1
Sep 24 Ch 9 multiple comparisons	Sep 26 multiple comparisons	Sep 28 inferences for non-normal models (& corresponding sections of Chapter 8)
Oct 1 Ch 10 categorical data	Oct 3 categorical data	Oct 5 categorical data
Oct 8 categorical data	Oct 10 Ch 11 linear regression	Oct 12 no class (out of town)
Oct 15 linear regression	Oct 17 linear regression	Oct 19 Test 2
Oct 22 multiple regression	Oct 24 multiple regression	Oct 26 Ch 13 model selection
Oct 29 nonlinear regression	Oct 31 non-normal regression	Nov 2 Ch 14 experimental design intro
Nov 5 factorial experiments	Nov 7 Ch 15 randomized complete block design	Nov 9 Latin square design
Nov 12 Test 3	Nov 14 AOV unbalanced & 3-way	Nov 16 Ch 16 analysis of covariance

Fall Break!

Nov 26 general linear model	Nov 28 general linear model	Nov 30 general linear model
Dec 3 generalized linear models (GLIM)	Dec 5 mixed effects models	Dec 7 other topics
Final exam occurs in the scheduled final exam period, 10AM-12noon, Friday, Dec 14. (No earlier reschedules will be allowed).

Items for further interest and enjoyment

Statistics-related links and resources

Dallal’s essay on why significance level is 5%

Brian’s essay on Bayesian statistics

Aaron and Brian’s essay on statistics education for ecologists

Scientists on medical & health practices (If it talks like a quack, and bills like a quack, it probably is a quack):

Quack watch

Acupuncture study

Science based medicine

Paranormal/supernatural phenomena:

Committee for Skeptical Inquiry

The Last Will and Testament of Philip J. Klass

To UFOlogists who publicly criticize me…or who even think unkind thoughts about me in private,

I do hereby leave and bequeath THE UFO CURSE: No matter how long you live, you will never know

any more about UFOs than you know today. You will never know any more about what UFOs really

are, or where they come from. You will never know any more about what the U.S. Government really

knows about UFOs than you know today. As you lie on your own death-bed you will be as mystified

about UFOs as you are today. And you will remember this curse.

— Philip J. Klass, prominent UFO skeptic, posted on a UFO discussion site shortly before his death

Bye-Bye, Psi

Scientists on evolution, intelligent design, biblical creation:

Talk origins

Panda’s thumb

Pharyngula

Why evolution is true

Dover trial transcripts (read what scientists and “cdesign proponentists” say under oath)

Department of Biological Sciences, Lehigh University

The continuing futile attacks by evolution’s opponents reminds me of another legendary confrontation,

that between Arthur and the Black Knight in the movie Monte Python and the Holy Grail. The Black

Knight, like evolution’s challengers, continues to fight even as each of his limbs is hacked off, one by

one. The “no transitional fossils” argument and the “designed genes” model have been cut clean off,

the courts have debunked the “ID is science” claim, and the nonsense here about the edge of evolution

is quickly sliced to pieces by well-established biochemistry. The knights of ID may profess these blows

are “but a scratch” or “just a flesh wound,” but the argument for design has no scientific leg to stand on.

— Sean B. Carroll, in a review (2007 Science 316:1427-1428), of Michael J. Behe’s book

The Edge of Evolution: The Search for the Limits of Darwinism.

National Science Teachers Association

Statisticians analyze USA elections:

Exit poll discrepancy analyses (2004 USA presidential election)

(How the 2004 election fraud was committed: A. B.)

Prima facie evidence of criminal vote-flipping with computerized voting machines

Scientists on climate change research:

Spencer Weart’s history of global change research (plus many fine links)

RealClimate

LaTeX (science/math/tech typesetting) resources:

Introduction to LaTeX

Comparing public, private, and charter schools with NAEP data:

Lubienski study

another Lubienski study

AFT report

NAEP/US Department of Education analysis

Postmodern comedy: which of the following articles is a (deliberate) parody?

A. Deconstructing the evidence-based discourse in health sciences: truth, power and fascism

B. Transgressing the boundaries: towards a transformative hermeneutics of quantum gravity

Answer is here

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