Department of Mathematics
4:10 p.m. Neil Hall 5 W
Refreshments at 3:30 p.m. Neill 216 Hacker Reading Lounge.
Department of Mathematics
Title
Realistic models for biological invasion
by
Mark Lewis
Canada Research
Chair in Mathematical Biology
University of Alberta
Abstract
Almost half a century ago Charles Elton (1958) warned of the increasing
frequency of foreign species introduction, and of the inevitable biological
dislocations that follow. Today, the number and type of invading organisms
is growing --- understanding and monitoring the process of alien species
spread is an important problem in mathematical ecology. A key element
of this process is prediction of spread rate for the invader. It was
thought for many years that this issue of spread rate was essentially resolved
by analysis of a nonlinear partial differential equation derived by
Fisher (1937) for invading genotypes. It is now clear that the
Fisher spread model does not hold for many relevant biological situations.
First, the model tacitly ignores rare, long distance dispersal events that
initiate secondary invasion foci, far ahead of the bulk of invasion.
These events can be shown to drive the invasion process at much higher speeds
than previously thought, at speeds which may continue to increase as the
invasion progresses. The resulting spatial pattern of spread is patchy,
with the patches linked historically via long-distance dispersal. I will
discuss some new mathematical results for integrodifference equations (discrete-time
maps in continuous space) that can be used to predict such patterns.
Second, the model does not include secondary ecological interactions with
resident species. When these interactions are competitive, interesting
problems arise in the calculation of the spread rate. I will
discuss some of these in the context of the general theory for systems of
integrodifference equations.