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Travel Demand Forecasting: Example Problems

 
Gravity Model

A study area consists of three zones. The data have been determined as shown in the following tables. Assume a Kij =1.

Zone Productions and Attractions

Zone

1

2

3

Total

Trip Productions

140

330

280

750

Trip Attractions

300

270

180

750

Travel Time between zones (min)

Zone

1

2

3

1

5

2

3

2

2

6

6

3

3

6

5

Travel Time versus Friction Factor

Time (min)

F

1

82

2

52

3

50

4

41

5

39

6

26

7

20

8

12

Determine the number of trips between each zone using the gravity model formula and the data given above. Note that while the Friction Factors are given in this problem, they will normally need to be derived by the calibration process described in the Theory and Concepts section.

[Solution Shown Below]

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Solution

First, determine the friction factor for each origin-destination pair by using the travel times and friction factors given in the problem statement.

Fij as Determined from Travel Time
Zone 1 2 3
1 39 52 50
2 52 26 26
3 50 26 39

Once you have the friction factors for each potential trip, you can begin solving the gravity model equation as shown below. Solving for the A*F*K term in a tabular form makes this process easier. Study the equation below and the following table.

Tij=Pi*((Aj*Fij*Kij)/(summation of Aj*Fij*Kij))

Where:
Tij = number of trips that are produced in zone I and attracted to zone j
Pi = total number of trips produced in zone I
Aj = number of trips attracted to zone j
Fij = a value which is an inverse function of travel time
Kij = socio economic adjustment factor for interchange ij

AjFijKij

1

2

3

sum

1

11700

14040

9000

34740

2

15600

7020

4680

27300

3

15000

7020

7020

29040

Once the A*F*K terms for each origin-destination are tabulated, you can insert these values into the gravity model equation and determine the number of trips for each origin-destination. The following table illustrates this.

Zone to Zone First Iteration:

zone

1

2

3

P

1

47

57

36

140

2

189

85

57

330

3

145

68

68

280

A

380

209

161

750

given A

300

270

180

750

Since the total trip attractions for each zone don’t match the attractions that were given in the problem statement, we need to adjust the attraction factors. Calculate the adjusted attraction factors according to the following formula:

Ajk = Aj/Cj(k-1)*Aj(k-1)

Where:
Ajk = adjusted attraction factor for attraction zone (column) j iteration k.
Ajk = Aj when k=1
Cjk = actual attraction (column) total for zone j, iteration k
Aj= desired attraction total to attraction zone (column) j
j= attraction zone number
n= number of zones
k = iteration number

To produce a mathematically correct result, repeat the trip distribution computation using the modified attraction values.

For example, for zone 1:
A12=300*300/379=237

Zone

1

2

3

 

  

Aj1

380

209

161

Given A

300

270

180

Aj2

237

349

201

    
AjFijKij

1

2

3

sum

1

9237

18138

10062

37437

2

12316

9069

5232

26617

3

11842

9069

7848

28759

 Zone to Zone Second Iteration:

zone

1

2

3

P

1

35

68

38

140

2

153

112

65

330

3

115

88

76

280

A

303

269

179

750

given A

300

270

180

750

Upon finishing the second iteration, the calculated attractions are within 5% of the given attractions. This is an acceptable result and the final summary of the trip distribution is shown below.

The resulting trip table is:

zone

1

2

3

1

35

68

38

2

153

112

65

3

115

88

76