Adaptive management is an attractive approach to managing animal populations and their habitats but it requires using modeling tools that are unfamiliar to many biologists.  Likewise modeling has become a central element of many modern scientific investigations of animal populations and their habitats because it facilitates identifying key processes and components and provides the basis for population viability analysis for rare and endangered species.  This week-long workshop is designed especially for wildlife, fisheries, conservation and other natural resource professionals needing an introduction or in-depth summary of modeling techniques useful for understanding and managing populations of animals and their habitats as well as evaluating their probability of persistence. 

Participants will begin by setting objectives, constraints and bounding their problem in a way that facilitates application of simple models.  The process of model building will be illustrated with numerous real examples from bird, mammal and fish populations in the Western U.S.  The great value of integrating models into both research and management programs will be developed beginning with simple balance models and progressing to complex, stochastic models embracing uncertainty and viability. Participants will gain hands-on experience in the use of statistical, simulation modeling, and GIS software by analyzing recent data on the distribution and abundance of fish and wildlife populations and their habitats in the Pacific Northwest.  Class size is limited to 22 participants and a minimum of 10 is required.  Workshop participants will accrue 24 contact hours toward The Wildlife Society’s Professional Development Program. Graduate credit from the Univ. of Idaho College of Graduate Studies is available also.

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• Welcome and Introduction

• Review of Basic Concepts
  Biological and statistical populations and samples
  Distributions
  Modeling overview: problem specification, modeling process (systems analysis), continuum of model complexity, and integration of models into research and management.

Tuesday  - 8:30 a.m. to 5 p.m.

• Objectives/Uses of Models
  Evaluation
  Projection
  Forecasting
  Hypotheses, Models and Science
  Alternative Views of the Scientific Method and Modeling
• Types of Models
  Implicit Mental Models
  Explicit Conceptual Models
  Instantaneous Analytical Models 
  Discrete Analytical Models
  Statistical Estimation Models
  Simulation Models

Wednesday  -  8:30 a.m. to 5 p.m.

• Systems a la Forrester
  System Principles
  Feedback Dynamics
  Structure of Systems
• Models of Population Dynamics
  Density-independent Growth
  Density-dependent Growth
  Age-classified Matrix Models
  Stage-classified Matrix Models
  Models with Geographic Structure
  Competing Populations
  Predator-prey Models
  Applications of Time Series Data

• Probability and Probability Models
  Randomness
  Experiments, Events and Probability
  Process and Observation Uncertainties
  Probability Distributions
  Monte Carlo Method

Thursday  - 8:30 a.m. to 5 p.m.

• Likelihood and Maximum Likelihood
  Appropriate Likelihood
  Model Selection Using Likelihoods
  Confidence Intervals
  Bootstrap Method
  Linear Regression, Analysis of Variance and Maximum Likelihood

• Information Theory and Model Selection
  Discrepancy Between Models  
  Akaike’s Information Criterion
  Calculation of AIC
  Application of AIC to Model Selection
  
• Sensitivity Analysis
  General 
  Elasticity
  
• Validation
   
• Stochastic Processes in Models  
  Bernoulli
  Poisson
  Discrete Markov
  Semi-Markov
  Brownian Motion

Friday  - 8:30 a.m. to 12 noon

• Population Viability Analysis
  Time-series PVA
  Demographically Explicit PVA
  Metapopulation Viability Analysis
  Other Approaches to PVA
  
• Adaptive Management
  Models of Renewable Resource Systems
  Uncertainty
  Feedback Policy Design
  Actively Adaptive Policies
  Adaptive Policy Design

Evening Sessions (Voluntary)

This workshop is designed to be as practical as possible. Thus, the following activities are offered on a voluntary basis.

LOCATION AND TIME

All meetings will be held at the All meetings will be held at the College of Natural Resources (Room 14), 6th and Line Street, University of Idaho, Moscow, Idaho. Meetings will run from 1 p.m. on Monday through noon on Friday.

PREREGISTRATION

The registration fee is $750 per participant. You may register by printing out the registration form and mail/FAX with payment information to the Department of Fish and Wildlife Resources, University of Idaho, Moscow, ID 83844-1136, FAX 208-885-9080.  A late fee of $100 will be added if check/PO/Invoice/Credit-Card payment not received 1 month prior to start of workshop.

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HOUSING

Housing is the responsibility of the registrant. A block of rooms has been reserved at the University Inn/Best Western. To receive the special rate, please call 208-882-0550 or 800-325-8765 and mention that you are with the Fish & Wildlife Modeling Workshop.

CREDIT

Workshop participants will accrue 24 contact hours toward The Wildlife Society's Professional Development Program, or credits toward other societies (AFS, ESA, SCB) continuing education requirements for professionals.  One graduate credit for Wlf 504 is available from the University of Idaho's College of Graduate Studies for an additional fee of $3??.  Graduate credit requires completing all lab assignments and writing a short paper after the course concludes.

QUESTIONS

For transportation, registration, or logistical information, please call the Department of Fish and Wildlife Resources at 208-885-6434 or fish_wildlife@uidaho.edu.