Class 
Date 
Topic 
Assignment 
1 
Aug 23 
Introduction 
Get
Adobe® Acrobat® Reader ^{™} 
2 
Aug 25 
Review of Probability 

3 
Aug 27 
Probability
Distributions

Homework #1 
4 
Aug 30 
Extreme
Value Distributions; Mathcad
Example (PDF) Rightclick on
the Mathcad link, save the Mathcad file to your computer, then open it with
Mathcad. (Internet Explorer will offer to change the file type to ".XML"
instead of ".xmcd". Insist on the ".xmcd" file type.) 

5 
Sep 1 
Asympotitic
Distributions; Gumbel's Classifications 
Homework #2 
6 
Sep 3 
Order
Statistics;
Order Stat
Ex, (PDF)
Spreadsheet



Sep 6 
Labor Day 

7 
Sep 8 
Bayes' Theorem,
Bayes' Theorem Example, (PDF) 

8 
Sep 10 
Transformation
of Variables; Mathcad Example
(PDF) 

9 
Sep 13 
The
Reliability Problem 
Homework #3

10 
Sep 15 
Second
Moment Formulations


11 
Sep 17 
Linear Limit States,
Example (PDF) 

12 
Sep 20 
Invariant Formulations 
3.6 and Homework
#4 
13 
Sep 22 
Nonlinear Limit States
(PDF) 

14 
Sep
24 
Transformation
Methods 

15 
Sep 27 
Examples
(PDF), Example
2 (PDF) 
5.1 and Homework
#5 
16 
Sep 29 
Determination
of the Safety Index 

17 
Oct 1 
Monte Carlo Simulation 

18 
Oct 4 
Examples: Mathcad,
(PDF), FOSM
comparison (PDF) 
5.4
and Homework #6 
19 
Oct 6 
EXAM
#1 (Old Exam) 

20 
Oct 8 
Importance
Sampling; Example (PDF) 
Project Assignment 
21 
Oct 11 
Latin
Hypercube Sampling, 
4.1, 12 
22 
Oct 13 
Latin
Hypercube Example (PDF)


23 
Oct 15 
Antithetic
Sampling; Antithetic Sampling
Example (PDF) Comparison 

24 
Oct 18 
Correlated
Random Variables, Example,
(PDF) 
Project Proposal 
25 
Oct 20 
System
Reliability

Homework
#9 
26 
Oct 22 
Series
System Probability Bounds 

27 
Oct 25 
Ditlevsen
Bounds,
Example (PDF) 

28 
Oct 27 
Parallel
Systems 

29 
Oct 29 
Probability
Evaluation 
9.1 
30 
Nov 1 
Approximate
Methods, Spreadsheet 
Project Progress Report 
31 
Nov 3 
Event Trees 

32 
Nov 5 
Codes
and Structural Reliability,
Example
(PDF) 
Homework #11 
33 
Nov 8 
Exam #2 
Old Exam 
34 
Nov 10 
Code
Calibration, Mechanistic
Empirical Pavement Design Guide 

35 
Nov 12 
Modeling of
Uncertainty 

36 
Nov 15 
Quantification
of Uncertainty 
8.2,
3 
37 
Nov 17 
Distributions 

38 
Nov 19 
Human
Error 
Project Progress Report 
Nov 
2226 
Thanksgiving Recess 

39 
Nov 29 
Time
Dependent Reliability 

40 
Dec 1 
Discrete
Processes 
Homework #13 
41 
Dec 3 
EXAM #3 
Old Exam, Excel
Sol'n 
42 
Dec 6 
Discrete
Process Examples, Mathcad Worksheets: 1
year, 50
years, t_{L}
years, pdf worksheets: 1
year, 50
years, t_{L}
years, 

43 
Dec 8 
Fatigue,
Example,
(PDF) 

44 
Dec 10 
Presentations 

47 
Dec 15 
7:30 A.M.  Presentations 
