Exam 4, Biology 301D, 8 December 2000 Printed name ________________

1. (2 pts.) Social security number and name. Fill in the scantron form with the correct bubbles for your name and social security number. Put your name on this exam. It is now a requirement that you turn in your exam hard copy with your name, so that we can verify the version you took. If your hard copy does not match your scantron, we will change the scantron to match it (or give you a zero if we cannot find your hard copy).

Key Code: Fill in (A) and (B) on scantron question 1. to indicate your exam code.

None, one, all, or any combination of individual answers apply to each question in this exam (except for "key code" questions). If any part of an option is incorrect, treat the entire option as incorrect.

Conflict

2. (10 pts) Which of the following options describe(s) an outcome that stems from a "tragedy of the commons" conflict or correctly identifies an issue that pertains to tragedy of the commons? None, one or many.

(A) Three people develop an investment portfolio together, contributing equally to the initial capital (money) they invest. One person is put in charge of managing the fund, but this person neglects the fund and, as a consequence, they all lose money.

(B) There is often a conflict between farmers and chemical companies over the use of pesticides. The outcome of this conflict is that the farmer often spends more money than necessary on pesticides and even suffers crop loss because of it.

(C) Global warming is now thought to be a result of the burning of fossil fuels around the world (fossil fuels are coal and oil). Over millions of years, plants converted carbon dioxide into oxygen and plant material. Burning this ancient plant material (which now takes the form of oil and coal) reverses the process and releases carbon dioxide, which helps the earth's atmosphere trap heat. Although every country is at risk from global warming for one reason or another (e.g., from changing weather patterns), each country is opposed to reducing its use of fossil fuels, because such reductions have negative effects on the country's economy. Furthermore, because the gases released from the burning of these fuels are spread throughout the globe, countries that burn more fuels benefit directly while distributing the cost around the world.

(D) Some vaccines, such as that against tetanus, do not provide herd immunity, because they vaccinate against an agent that is not infectious from person to person. (consider the previous statement true.) Therefore, the tragedy of the commons conflict does not apply to these cases, because there is no benefit to the group of having everyone vaccinated (aside from possible costs to health care).

(E) Laws that require compliance (e.g., as a method of punishing non-compliance) is one of the ways that modern societies reduce the occurrence of tragedy of the commons.

(F) People often litter public parks and roads, simply because it seems that their little bit of litter won't make much of a difference to the appearance of the road/park, and it gets the litter out of their hands. When magnified over many people, the environment becomes trashy from this type of behavior.

(G) In colonial days, a "common" was a communal grazing area for landowners in the town. The metaphor "tragedy of the commons" refers to the fact that such communal grazing areas were overgrazed, because too many people behaved in a selfish manner by putting more than their share of livestock on the common.

 

3. (5 pts.) Mark all of the following statements presented in lecture or Notes as being correct.

(A) For many vaccines that are considered effective, not everyone can be protected by a vaccination. In particular, babies cannot be vaccinated at birth, and they experience a window of vulnerability to infection during their first few years. Also, for reasons not understood, some adults who get vaccinated are not protected either.

(B) The disease poliomyelitis ("polio") was prevalent in the U.S. into the 1950s.

(C) When most individuals in a population (i.e. city or country) are vaccinated, the remaining unvaccinated individuals have a decreased risk of infection, a phenomenon known as herd immunity.

(D) Many types of vaccinations are required for attendance in U.S. public schools.

Demonstrations

4. (6 pts). The money game. Which of the following options about the "money game " demonstration are true?

(A) The theme illustrated was of a kind of bias in model evaluation that results from conflict.

(B) Replication was an essential feature of the way the game was played; the demonstration could not have illustrated its point if the game was played with just one individual.

(C) Since this was an experiment, randomization was an important feature of the way the game should have been played. It was important to distribute the slips of paper randomly (or somewhat so), instead of letting people choose which slip of paper they got, to destroy unwanted correlations in the data.

(D) The demonstration involved a conflict in which individual gain was pitted against group benefit.

(E) The demonstration specifically involved asking each person to assign a fraction of a total of money to themselves and the rest of the money to the group, to be divided among everyone.

(F) Someone could have won $100 of real money under at least one outcome of the game.

5. (7 pts) Jay Koehler's lecture involved one or more surveys in which you participated. Topics included in these surveys were:

(A) a comparison of advertising techniques in promoting cigarettes

(B) the response of jurors to different presentations of DNA evidence

(C) the impact of lab error rates on one's "confidence" in DNA typing

(D) the phenomenon of "hot hands" or "cold hands" in atheletics

(E) reverse hindsight

(F) conflict resolution in small groups

(G) the perception of genetic risk when presented as a percentage versus actual numbers (odds)

 

6. (4 pts) What was illustrated or concluded with the coinflip demonstration accompanying Jay's lecture?

(A) theme: conflict arises when people get different observations (from sampling error)

(B) The numbers of students with runs of all "heads" declined much as expected when the number of tosses was extended (there was no "sequential dependency").

(C) In a large class such as ours, one or a few students are expected to be able to correctly predict the outcome of 5 coinflips in a row.

(D) Bias: individuals who obtained 5 heads in 5 tosses were likely not flipping their coin randomly.

(E) There was no coinflip demonstration in Jay's lecture

Deliberate Bias

7. (7 pts) Mark all of the following statements that are correct about bias, as covered in lecture or the Notes (none, one, or many):

(A) It is possible to bias a study in the experimental design stage.

(B) It is possible to bias a study in the analysis stage, even if the study was designed and conducted in an unbiased fashion

(C) It is possible to bias the presentation of a study (e.g., to a jury), even if the design, conduct, and analysis were carried out in an unbiased fashion.

(D) Bias can be concealed in the published protocol for a study.

(E) Much of scientific advancement comes from independent thinkers. An idea that goes against the established views and models therefore warrants more consideration (e.g., should be considered more likely to be correct) than one that is consistent with established views and models. In slang terminology, heresy is associated with correctness.

(F) To show that your opponent's model should be rejected, it is sufficient merely to identify at least TWO assumptions of their model which are incorrect.

(G) A major step in identifying deliberate bias is to identify conflicts of interest (is to anticipate vested interests).

8 (5pts). (none, one, or many) To bias a scientific process by "controlling the null model" means that

(A) The experimental design is chosen to bias the outcome of the study.

(B) The data analysis is conducted in such a way to bias the evaluation.

(C) The model that is considered to be accepted until proven wrong is chosen by the individual according to his/her goals. This choice precedes the experimental design and data analysis stages.

(D) Controls (as opposed to treatments) are chosen in such a way to favor one particular model.

 

9-14. Mark the type of nonscientific argument (blatant bias) illustrated in each of the following examples. Base your answer on the information given in the question. None, one or more than one answer may apply.

(A) Appeal to authority

(D) Build causation from correlation

(B) Character assassination of opponent

(E) Refusal to admit error

(C) Draw on anecdotes or post hoc observations

(F) Either-or arguments

9. (4 pts) In the Prisoners of Silence video, Dr. Bicklen of Syracuse University stated that it doesn't matter how many times we fail in our attempts to demonstrate that facilitated communication works, we need to keep looking for those cases in which it does work. Dr. Bickland's viewpoint, taken in the context of this video, is an example of which type of nonscientific argument ?

(A) (B) (C) (D) (E) (F)

10. (3 pts) Another lawyer, in building a case against a defendant on trial for murder, points out that the woman's 3 previous husbands all died unexpectedly within one year of their marriage. He argues that this constitutes partial evidence of the woman's guilt in causing their deaths.

(A) (B) (C) (D) (E) (F)

11. (3 pts) Duane Gish, of the Creation Research Institute, has engaged numerous biologists in public debates over the theory of evolution. One common method of argument he uses is that the modern theory of evolution does not explain everything we see in living things. Since the theory of evolution is therefore inadequate, he argues that his alternative, special creation, must be correct.

(A) (B) (C) (D) (E) (F)

12. (4 pts) In defending their beliefs in the validity of facilitated communication, parents shown in the video recalled incidents in which their child responded in a way that, upon interpretation, suggested to them that facilitated communication worked. What type of blatant bias is indicated by this form of parental defense of their belief in FC?

(A) (B) (C) (D) (E) (F)

13. (4 pts) Lawyers, when questioning an expert for the opposing side in a court case, often look for minor weaknesses in the expert's arguments (when there are no major weaknesses). These weaknesses might be merely the standard ways in which every model is false (but not requiring refutation of the model). The lawyer then inflates the significance of these weaknesses to discredit the testimony.

(A) (B) (C) (D) (E) (F) 

14. (3 pts) A lawyer challenges scientific evidence in a case by informing the jury that the well-known editor of Science Magazine has written an editorial raising doubts about the same methods used to gather the evidence in this trial.

(A) (B) (C) (D) (E) (F)

 

Drug Companies

15. (7 pts) Which of the following constitute possible bias in experimental design rather than at other stages of the process? None, one, or more than one answer may apply.

(A) Searching for a statistical test to support the desired conclusion

(B) pseudo blind

(C) assay for a narrow spectrum of unlikely results

(D) Appeal to authority

(E) Refusal to admit error

(F) small samples

(G) change design in mid-course

(H) Throw out unwanted results

(I) character assassination of opponent

16. (5 pts) The lecture and notes mentioned that pharmaceutical manufacturers use (or have used) which of the following methods to help bias doctors and research programs to enhance drug sales: (none, one, or many)

(A) Given the doctors trinkets (such as cups, posters, pens and note pads) with the pharmaceutical company logo written on them

(B) Infiltrated government committees to ensure that federal guidelines mandate use of their drugs for certain types of illnesses

(C) Given doctors free trips to exotic places such as Florida and the Bahamas

(D) Published advertisements that look like real scientific articles

(E) Deliberately developed substances with the property that "one drug fixes all" to encourage people to take the drug for a variety of illnesses, even though the drug is not especially good for any of the illnesses.

Pesticides

17 (4 pts). (Changed from the practice exam). The lecture presented two statements about pesticide use and crop loss:

i) pesticide use has increased 10-fold in the last 30 years, while

ii) crop loss to insects has doubled during this time.

If we accept these two statements, which options are correct? (none, one, or many)

(A) We can reject the model that pesticides have become more effective during the last 30 years

(B) Since pesticides have become less effective over time, we can reject the model that insect resistance has decreased during this time.

(C) The effectiveness of pesticides cannot be evaluated from these statements without knowing the amount of crops being treated

(D) These two statements describe a correlation, with no mention of causation.

18. (4 pts). In evaluating whether pesticides reduce crops lost to pests, which of the following statements are valid (as per the discussion in lecture)? (none, one, many)

(A) An effective means of evaluating pesticide efficacy is to compare crop losses between areas in which all the farms happen to have been using high levels of pesticides and other areas in which all the farms happen to have been using low levels of pesticides.

(B) An experiment is the best approach, with ideal data features of replication, controls, blind, and explicit protocol. Randomization is likely NOT necessary.

(C) A simple method of determining the amount of crops saved by pesticides is to count the fractions of pests killed following pesticide treatment. The fraction of pests directly killed in response to the initial pesticide application is a good (but rough) measure of the reduction of pests that can be counted on in repeated applications of pesticides and is a measure of the extent to which crop losses can be reduced by continuing pesticide use.

19. (7 pts.) According to the lecture, what methods have chemical companies used (or what have they benefited from) to increase the amount of pesticides used on crops in U.S. agriculture? (none, one, many)

(A) Chemical companies have 'infiltrated' committees and other policy making units of USDA

(B) Chemical companies have ties to 'Agriculture' schools to encourage research on their products

(C) The pesticide "addiction principle": Increased use generates increased dependency. Pesticides work at first, but the pest problem worsens later, and the farmer is drawn into further use of pesticides because the pesticide continues to kill bugs in the short-term.

(D) Pesticides provide a "simple" solution in that one pesticide kills many (or all) of the pests.

(E) Chemical companies have suppressed research on non-chemical alternatives

(F) Time lags in the pesticide treadmill work to the advantage of chemical overuse.

(G) The U.S. Department of Agriculture can force farmers participating in government subsidy programs to spray with pesticides, if the farmer wants to receive farm subsidies.

20. (5 pts.) The Pesticide Treadmill model discussed in lecture is a metaphor for what type of phenomenon? None, one or more than one answer may be correct.

(A) The heavy use of a pesticide results in eventual pest resistance to the pesticide and the subsequent need for new ones. Because chemical companies have already invented the easy pesticides, they can only continue to produce new pesticides at a rate barely equal to the agricultural demand for them. The "treadmill" is the difficulty that the chemical company experiences in keeping up with the demand for new pesticides.

(B) The "treadmill" is an economic phenomenon in which the farmer gets locked into long-term payments to chemical companies for a long-term plan of regular spraying. The farmer cannot increase profits because of the long-term monetary commitment to the pesticide company.

(C) The metaphor applies to the pest itself. Pesticides are so effective that each time a pest species evolves resistance to a pesticide, the farmer switches to a new one and knocks its numbers back to low levels. The pest thus never makes any headway against the chemicals (which is the treadmill).

(D) Government approval of pesticides is a long process, and for each new pesticide approved, an old one is withdrawn. The treadmill is a metaphor for the long and expensive process of obtaining government approval.

21. (2pts). Fill in options (E) and (F) on question 24 to indicate your true exam code.