1. (4 pts) Key code, box #, and name. Fill in (A B) to indicate your key for this version of the exam. Be sure your name and box number are correctly bubbled in on the scantron and that you have signed this exam copy.

Demos and videos

 

2. (4 pts). The money game. Which of the following options apply to the "money game" that used strips of paper? (MTF)

A)     The theme illustrated a bias in model evaluation that results from conflict.

B)      The game illustrated a type of conflict that arises from sampling error.

C)      The point of the game requires several players; the demonstration could not have illustrated its point if the game was played with just one individual.

D)     Since this was an experiment, randomization was an important feature of the way the game should have been played. It was important to distribute the strips of paper randomly, instead of letting people choose which slip of paper they wanted, to destroy unwanted correlations.

E)      The choice that every individual could make which allowed group benefit was the $20 option.

 

3. (4 pts). Consider the coin flip demonstration. What was the purpose of this demonstration, or what was illustrated? (MTF)

(A)        The purpose was to show how the choice of different statistical tests allows one to bias an evaluation.

(B)         The purpose was to show how controlling the null model allows a biased evaluation.

(C)         The demonstration illustrated a type of bias that would usually occur at the end of a study, after all data were gathered.

(D)         The demonstration was used as an analogy to a drug company funding trials in stages and terminating funding of a study before it was completed, if the results were not looking favorable.

(E)          The demonstration was used as an analogy to a vaccine trial that had too few patients to detect a rare side effect.

 

4. (4 pts) Mark all statements that correctly summarize the information shown in part II of Prisoners of Silence video on Facilitated Communication (FC). MTF

The video illustrated:

A)       individuals whose goals were not just to determine whether FC was real.

B)        multiple types of non-scientific arguments indicative of bias.

C)        that the experiments debunking FC brought an end to institutional support for FC (by institutions such as Syracuse University and the schools whose facilitators had made allegations of sexual abuse).

D)        a valid objection to the design of experiments debunking FC, and the video proposed new experiments to overcome this objection..

How our brains mislead us

5. (5 pts) The chapter and lecture on this topic listed and discussed several ways in which our brains automatically think and make decisions that are not “rational” under the scientific method. Which of the following options are from that list or illustrate a point on that list (lecture covered more than in the book)? MTF

A)       A major theme of this chapter is that humans deliberately/consciously act in ways that work against rational decision-making

B)        Chain letters (similar to urban legends) take advantage of two of our emotions, fear and greed, that thwart rational decision-making.

C)        Many advertisements take advantage of our tendency to draw causation from correlation.

D)        Memory reconstruction underlies our ability to recall details of incidents that are initially forgotten.

E)         As examples of how we respond to perceived risks rather than actual risks, television changes our perception of odds and often leads us to react as though the odds or risk of an event is higher than it truly is. Two such examples are the odds of plane crashes and winning the lotto.

Biology of being gay

6 & 7. LeVay's study involved measuring the volume of INAH 3 in several different groups listed as (A)-(F). For the following two questions, assume that the listed groups differ only in the ways explicitly indicated. Your answer should indicate the comparison that addresses the hypothesis, and controls for all unwanted factors indicated in this set of subjects (AIDS, sexual preference, gender). To indicate the appropriate comparison, mark exactly two answers. However, if no two groups control for all factors noted in these data, do not put down any options.

(A) gay males with AIDS

(C) heterosexual males with AIDS

(E) heterosexual females without AIDS

(B) heterosexual males (some with, and some without AIDS)

(D) heterosexual males without AIDS

(F) Lesbian females with AIDS

6. (3 pts) Which two groups would you want to compare to test the hypothesis that volume of INAH 3 differs with sex/gender? In answering this question, make use of the information given in class about the different categories of sexual preference. Two or none

                                                                                          (A)         (B)          (C)          (D)         (E)          (F)

7. (3 pts) Which two groups used by LeVay give the best evidence that sexual preference remains correlated with INAH 3 volume when other factors are controlled? Two or none.

(A)         (B)          (C)          (D)         (E)          (F)

 

8. (5 pts) With respect to the topic of sexual preference in general, and the study by Simon LeVay in particular, which are true? (MTF)

A)    One theme was ‘pitfalls of complexity’ because there are known to be many interacting factors that influence sexual preference.

B)     The question of human sexual preference is a question about biological determinism, which addresses whether a behavior is genetically programmed or learned/acquired.

C)     One of the difficulties we face in identifying the bases of sexual preference is ‘humans make difficult subjects.’ In part because of this difficulty, much of the progress in understanding human sexual preference has been aided by studies of rodents.

D)     The results of LeVay’s study refute the model that sexual preference in humans is acquired after birth.

E)      Blind was not a relevant feature of LeVay’s study design because his subjects were all dead.

Intrinsic Difficulties

9. (5pts) Which of the following options accurately explains an intrinsic difficulty and/or correctly explains why it constitutes a special difficulty for the scientific method? MTF

A)    Rare events: this difficulty refers to sampling error and the consequence that, if the average or expected number of “events” per N individuals is 1, then you may need to sample more than N individuals (maybe 2N, 3N, or more) to have a good chance of observing at least one event.

B)     Complexity: this difficulty refers to the general phenomenon that problems in science are often much more complicated than first guessed.

C)     Humans make difficult subjects: This problem is primarily that humans are uncooperative research subjects.

D)     Time lags: this difficulty slows down the scientific method. A delay between the cause of an outcome and the time the effect appears introduces a delay in each cycle of the scientific method.

10-14. These questions ask for the course theme(s) illustrated by the given statement. Do not assume any more than what is explicitly given in the question. That is, address only the difficulties specifically mentioned. There are fewer options here than on some practice questions. (One or two answers only)

(A)

Rare events are difficult to quantify

(B)

Time lags slow progress

(C)

Complexity (interactions)

(D)

Humans make difficult experimental subjects

(E)

None

 

10. (4pts) The following quote (from USA Today, 23 Nov 04) describes some problems encountered with a statin drug that had been FDA approved and was later withdrawn (Baycol).

“Patients who took Lipitor, Pravachol or Zocor [statins] had similar, low rates of hospitalizations for [the muscle disorder] rhabdomyolysis – an average of one out of every 20,000 patients per year. Among those who also took a fibrate, another cholesterol-lowering drug, the rhabdomyolysis hospitalization rate was about 12 out of every 20,000 patients per year.

Among patients who took only Baycol for their cholesterol, more than 10 out of every 20,000 were hospitalized each year with the muscle disorder. But the rate soared to 2,070 per 20,000 – or one in 10 – per year among those who took a fibrate as well as Baycol.”

The two questions for you to answer are (i) what type of intrinsic difficulty is indicated by the higher rate of problems caused when a fibrate is taken with Baycol than when a fibrate is taken with other statins, and (ii) which intrinsic difficulty explains why the higher rate of hospitalization with Baycol alone than with the other statins alone would not necessarily have been detected in clinical trials. If you think that only one of these two problems stems from an “intrinsic difficulty,” you should fill in only one answer. (Use “none” only if neither problem is an intrinsic difficulty.) Use the information about clinical trials given in class on Monday.

(A) (B) (C) (D) (E)

 

11. (3pts) Which difficulty (difficulties) would explain why it is harder to fix a car engine with 3 problems (each of which alone would keep the engine from running) than to fix a car with just one problem? (A) (B) (C) (D) (E)

12. (3pts) Not the same as on a previous exam. Consider the alternative of taking one exam per semester per class versus several exams per semester (e.g., Bio301D gives 4 exams). Which difficulty explains why it is more difficult to use the scientific method to improve performance in a class with only one exam than in a class with several, regardless of when the exam is (exams are) given?                                              (A) (B) (C) (D) (E)

(A) Rare events are difficult to quantify

(B) Time lags slow progress

(C) Complexity (interactions)

(D) Humans make difficult experimental subjects

(E) None

13. (3pts) modified from a previous exam. Hundreds of thousands of Americans still die each year of smoking, even though the serious detrimental health consequences of smoking have been known since about 1950. The tobacco companies have researched the health consequences of tobacco, but have not given consumers and independent scientists access to most of their data. It appears that the corporations' goals are at odds with the goals of consumers. Which difficulty underlies this failure of science?                                            (A) (B) (C) (D) (E)

14. (4pts) Cancer is a disease that is common enough to warrant investment by drug companies to develop treatments. However, the cost of following clinical-trial patients after treatment is enormous, so the only cancers specifically targeted by drug company research are those that grow rapidly (“aggressive” cancers). By doing trials on aggressive cancers, the normal course of the untreated disease is fast enough that drug efficacy can be evaluated before clinical trial costs become prohibitive.                         (A) (B) (C) (D) (E)

Conflict

15. (5pts) Which options are true, regarding public vaccination and tragedy of the common? MTF.

A)     The “herd immunity” provided by vaccination of a population provides a type of group benefit that is central to tragedy of the common conflicts.

B)      The benefit to an individual from vaccination also benefits the common/public good, which is required for tragedy of the common conflicts.

C)      Public vaccination is not a tragedy of the common conflict for some types of infection.

D)     Public vaccination would not be subject to tragedy of the common if vaccination offered no protection to the person vaccinated (such vaccines exist – they do not prevent infection, but they prevent the infected individual from transmitting the infection.)

16. (6 pts) Which of the following options describe an outcome that stems from a "tragedy of the commons" conflict? Note that ‘tragedy of the common’ is not restricted to humans. (MTF)

A)       On Halloween, Basil Faulty feels an obligation to the kids in costume, but he doesn’t want to have to get up from watching TV to answer the door. So in 2005, he put an unattended bowl of candy outside his door with a sign: “one candy bar per kid.” Based on counts of kids from previous years, he put a 50% excess of candy bars in the bowl. Although the usual number of kids visited in 2005, many of them took more than a single bar, and the bowl was empty well before the kids stopped visiting.

B)        Class attendance is not part of the grade in Bio301D. Consequently, many students do not come to class and thus miss out on material that is tested on the exam but is not in the book. Their reasons for not attending are many, but all of them involve outside conflicts, such that they cannot go to lecture AND do the other thing. Those who do not frequently attend average one grade lower than those who do usually attend.

C)        Oil is an important resource in our society. We have become so used to its cheap availability that we have invested in many industries and products that rely on it. Now, as the supply is dwindling, we find the price increasing because the demand is great relative to the supply, and the companies that own the oil rights are making large profits.

D)        An island off Britain contains a population of sheep whose numbers go up and down over the years. The population roams freely about the island and eats whatever vegetation it can find. When sheep numbers have been low for awhile, the vegetation that they eat flourishes. With lots of food available, sheep birth rates rise, and before too many years, there are so many sheep that they eat all of the vegetation. At this point, most of the sheep starve to death. With fewer sheep, the vegetation recovers, and the cycle repeats itself.

Deliberate Bias

17. (5 pts) Which of the following constitute possible bias in design rather than at other stages of the process? MTF


(A) Searching for a statistical test to support the desired conclusion

(B) control the null model

(C) Appeal to authority

(D) Refusal to admit error

(E) use small samples

(G) Throw out unwanted results

(H) post hoc analysis of the data


 

18. (4 pts). Which apply to "controlling the null model?" MTF

(A) Treatment groups (as opposed to control groups) are chosen to favor one particular model.

(B)   The experimental design is chosen to bias the outcome of the study.

(C)   Data analysis is conducted in such a way as to bias the evaluation

(D)   The model that is considered to be accepted until proven wrong is chosen by the individual according to their goal.

 

19-21 (3pts each). Mark the type of nonscientific argument (blatant bias) illustrated in each of the following examples. Base your answer on the information given in the question. one or two answers

 

(A) Claim that all alternatives have not been disproved

(D) Build causation from correlation

(G) None

(B) Character assassination of opponent

(E) Refusal to admit error

 

(C) Draw on anecdotes or post hoc observations

(F) Either-or arguments

 

 

19. (3pts) A student shown in the “Secrets of the Psychics” video (before exam 3) challenged the interpretation of the horoscope experiment on the grounds that the experiment did not “show there was nothing to” horoscopes. Which type(s) of nonscientific argument underlie(s) this challenge?               (A) (B)  (C) (D)  (E) (F)   (G)

20.(3pts) In defending their beliefs in the validity of facilitated communication, parents shown in the video recalled incidents in which their child responded in a way that, upon interpretation, suggested to them that facilitated communication worked. What type of nonscientific argument is indicated by this form of parental defense of their belief in FC?                  (A)         (B)          (C)          (D)         (E)               (F)          (G)

21.(3pts) In attempting to justify raising taxes, a politician argues that, because STD (sexually-transmitted disease) rates were lower following previous hikes in beer taxes, that beer taxes should be raised to further lower STD rates.                              (A)         (B)          (C)          (D)         (E)          (F)               (G)        

 

 

22. (4pts) This question gets at the distinction between conflict and bias. Which of the following are true? MTF

(A)   Bias usually appears in the design stage of a study. Conflict usually appears in the evaluation.

(B)    By definition in our material, non-scientific arguments are forms of conflicting goals that interfere with the scientific method.

(C)    In the criminal justice system, a useful goal is to design laws that eliminate the conflict in a trial, so that forensic evidence is presented more fairly.

(D)   Conflict refers to different people/institutions having different goals. Bias refers to a way of distorting a study or its conclusions away from “truth.”

 

Pharma, drugs, and medicine

23. (4pts) Which of the following news items were covered in Monday’s lecture? To be correct, an option must have been covered and describe what was covered. MTF

A)     The animal reservoir of Ebola virus was discovered recently. The virus normally infects monkeys.

B)      A randomized experiment was conducted with humans to determine if circumcision reduces AIDS infection rate. Circumcision was found to have a large benefit. (part of this question is whether the study was actually an experiment and randomized)

C)      A recent analysis of studies on the MMR vaccine (measles, mumps, rubella) suggested that there was no credible evidence the vaccine was a cause of autism.

D)     None.

24.(5pts) Which of the following points about drug development are true? MTF

A)    From a patient perspective, the safest clinical trial phase is phase I.

B)     If you discover a new drug and want to see it brought to market by industry, it is more likely that the drug will be tested and developed for consumption if you (or someone else) obtains patent rights to it, than if a patent is not obtained.

C)     The total cost per successful new drug developed in the U.S. today is nearly $150million (within a factor of 2)

D)     Biotech now has the capability of developing drugs for various rare diseases – the new science of genomics gives us this ability. We therefore expect many of these rare diseases to have drugs coming to market in the next 1-2 decades.

25. (6 pts) The lecture and notes mentioned that pharmaceutical manufacturers use (or have used) which of the following methods to help bias doctors and otherwise enhance drug sales: MTF

(A) Sponsored Continuing Medical Education classes, but invited as speakers mostly those researchers who advocate using drugs manufactured by the sponsoring company

(B) Funded independent research but prohibited publication of the results if the results looked unfavorable to company interests

(C) Given the doctors trinkets (such as cups, posters, pens and note pads) with the pharmaceutical company logo written on them

(D) Inflated the cost of developing new drugs to facilitate getting more government grants

(E) Published advertisements that look like real scientific articles

(F) Taken physicians to free lunches and given them free samples to encourage use of the company’s products.