Motivation (day-1 survey and discussion of it)
1. (5 pts) The following options pertain to the survey and the second day of class, in which we discussed how people and society make decisions. Which are correct? MTF
A) It was claimed that public beliefs are closely aligned with what our government accepts.
B) All of the following factors were listed as possibly contributing to Individual decisions: evidence, views of others, a personÕs Ôworld viewÕ and emotional factors.
C) In the survey, it was at least moderately common to observe class responses with some students considering the statement definitely true and others considering it definitely false (though not necessarily a bimodal class response).
D) Your class as well as those of previous years exhibit evidence that a concept couched in conspiracy language is more believable than the same concept without the conspiracy context.
2. (5 pts) More about motivation. Which of the following points are true? MTF
A) The scientific method, as used in our class, is intended primarily for addressing problems that fall under the domain of traditional science. For everyday problems that are not considered traditional science, we need an alternative method of making decisions.
B) A major goal of this course, as mentioned in class, is that when you make decisions, you should eliminate as many non-scientific factors as possible in favor of scientific ones.
C) On many responses, a large number of students indicated some level of uncertainty. We suggested that uncertainty need not (does not have to) reflect an ignorance of the issues and data.
D) In the survey, a response of Ôconsensus uncertaintyÕ was observed on several statements, with a strong peak in the middle and few at either extreme.
Scientific method
3. (5pts) The use of evidence to evaluate a model is part of what we are calling the scientific method. Which of the following questions/problems could be addressed with evidence-based evaluation of models (or more generally, could be studied with the scientific method as we are using it in this class)? MTF
A) Does partying the night before an exam affect your performance on the exam?
B) Do tall people think they lead happier lives than short people?
C) What style and form of a resume leads to a high rate of job interviews?
D) Does alcohol consumption increase lifespan?
E) Are psychics better at picking winning lottery numbers than are other people?
4 (5 pts) Which options correctly explain the nature of an element of the scientific method? MTF
A) Data are facts or observations used to evaluate a model
B) The goal is usually an attempt to prove that a particular model is correct.
C) Evaluation is the process of deciding whether data are OK to use in the scientific method.
D) Revision: When the scientific method does not yield the desired outcome, the method is revised (by removing one or more elements) to achieve the desired outcome.
5 (5 pts) Which of the following are valid properties of the scientific method (SM)? MTF
A) The SM is cyclical, but in a curious way. There are actually two SM cycles (one on each side of figure given in class), and whichever cycle is entered first, further implementations of the SM for that goal remain in that cycle without crossing over to the other cycle.
B) Each time data are used in the SM, the model is rejected and replaced with another.
C) The SM is fundamentally similar to trial and error
D) In the figure of the scientific method (not shown), data feed directly into revision.
E) In the figure of the scientific method, revision feeds directly into goals.
6 (5 pts) Steve wants to get a good job, but thinks it will take time to get something he will want to stay with for years, so he plans on making many applications. He does not have much experience with applications or interviews and so he uses what he thinks is the scientific method. His first step is to develop four different styles of resume and send them to different job openings for a 6 month period, recording whether he was invited for an interview. He then compares the rates of invited interviews for each resume style and uses the most successful style in his applications thereafter.
Which elements of the scientific method are indicated? (The goal is underlined.) MTF
A) model B) data C) evaluation D) revision
7 (4 pts) Therapeutic Touch (TT) is a controversial nursing practice that has been taught in the UT Nursing School and elsewhere. Like other nursing practices, TT purports to improve patient healing and overall well-being. People are trained in TT methods by taking classes that provide the basic concepts, and this training enables them to use TT on their own patients. Practitioners steadfastly refuse to subject their methods to rigorous tests that would show whether patients are actually healed faster by TT than without TT, so we don't know if TT has any validity.
ÒDataÓ are absent from the problem description; the goal is underlined. Which of the following options explains why data are absent? MTF
(A) Evaluation is absent, and without evaluation, there can be no data.
(B) There is no description of people making observations to test TT as a method for achieving the goal of improving health.
(C) Since TT likely has no validity, it is not possible to find data to support the model.
8 (6 pts) The Board of Directors of an insurance company wants to increase profits. They decide to implement the scientific method to see if their insurance practices of the last 5 years (which are based on an old set of rules to decide whether to cover someone based on their age and health history) can be modified to increase profits. A new set of rules is put into practice for two years. You are asked by the Board for the DATA that will allow them to decide which set of rules is better for their goal (underlined). Which of the following should you give them as data for their implementation of the scientific method (MTF)?
A) Client profiles under the old rules
B) Client profiles under the new rules
C) Profits under the old rules
D) Profits under the new rules.
E) The old rules
F) The new rules
9 (5 pts). Which institutions or processes were described as (usually) lacking at least MODELS as a deficiency in the scientific method? Some of these were covered only in the book. MTF
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(A) religion |
(B) evolutionary biology |
(C) astrology |
(D) a criminal trial |
(E) car repair |
(F) writing a news article |
10 (7 pts) For which model-goal combinations is the limitation serious enough to reject the model or at least seriously question its usefulness? MTF
A) Model, goal: Xerox of an original printed document to enable someone to read the text. Limitation: the Xerox does not match the printed document at the microscopic level of dots per inch.
B) Model, goal: Xerox of an original printed document to assess printer resolution when highly magnified. Limitation: the Xerox does not match the printed document at the microscopic level of dots per inch.
C) Model, goal: Photograph of a person for knowing who to meet at the airport. Limitation: the photograph contains no material (e.g., DNA, hair) from the person.
D) Model, goal: One condom subjected to the airburst test as a model of an untested condom in the same batch for assessing condom integrity of the untested condom. Limitation: the untested condom is not microscopically the same as the other before it was tested.
E) Model, goal: One condom subjected to the airburst test as a model of an untested condom in the same batch for actual use in sex after the test. Limitation: the tested condom has been stretched by the inflation.
11 (8 pts) General points about models. In the following options, the bold font gives a possible theme from class, and the statement following explains it. Fill in only those options for which both apply: (1) the bold statement is indeed one of the points made, and (2) the statement following it also correctly explains it or correctly addresses it. MTF
A) The usefulness of a goal depends on the model. In practice, if a model is found to be inadequate for one goal, we tend to look for another goal that suits it better. Science is a method of finding progressively better goals.
B) Pieces and parts as models of the whole. Because all models are false, we make more progress by dissecting models into their component parts (ÔpiecesÕ) and working with the pieces instead of the whole.
C) Pieces and parts as models of the whole. A model of something is more likely to be useful the closer it comes to representing the "whole" of it, rather than just a part of it.
D) One-to-many, many-to-one. Scientific progress typically involves starting with a single model, expanding to many models, then ultimately converging back to a single model.
E) One-to-many, many-to-one. When pursuing one goal, we may at first use many different models (e.g., the airburst test and water-leak test of condoms), but eventually, we will converge on using just a single model for achieving that goal.
F) The importance of model accuracy. Ultimately, the most useful model (the one we most want to use) is the one that most closely matches what we are trying to represent. For example, human subjects are the most useful model for studying whether a food additive causes of cancer in humans, as opposed to mice or bacteria, because mice and bacteria are not humans.
12 (6pts) Miscellaneous points about models. Which of the following are true? MTF
A) Limitations. Since all models have limitations but some limitations are more serious than others, we search for goals that minimize the limitations.
B) ACU are characteristics of a model that make it useful. No one characteristic is necessarily valued above the others.
C) A model can be both accurate and convenient, because there is nothing that keeps a model from satisfying several of the 3 ACU criteria.
D) It is possible for the same model to be useful for some goals but useless for others
E) If a model is useful for two different goals, then if it is accurate for one of the goals it is also accurate for the other goal
F) An article on ÔTall people lead better livesÕ was discussed in class. It was decided that the results of that study were inconclusive because the model used to assess a personÕs satisfaction in life was flawed.
13 (4 pts) Which of the following were given in lecture/book as prominent model failures? MTF
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(A) draft lottery in 1969 |
(B) the drug Seldane |
(C) Hubble telescope |
(D) early clinical trials |
(E) the first Space Shuttle launch |
(F) Newsweek article on Christine Maggiore
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14 (4 pts) Which models in condom testing were said to be strong on accuracy (regardless of other model properties)? MTF
A) Trained technicians
B) Volunteers
C) Mechanical tests
D) Airburst test (as used in the U.S.)
15 (4 pts) Which points about condom testing models (as a model of sex) are true? MTF
A) The airburst test is strong on convenience, poor on uniformity
B) Airburst test results of a batch often donÕt match breakage during sex
C) Volunteers were said to be weak on uniformity. The lack of uniformity was illustrated in the volunteer tests of condoms preventing HIV transmission, in that volunteers could only be grouped as ÔconsistentÕ or ÔinconsistentÕ users.
D) Volunteer studies failed to offer evidence that condoms helped prevent HIV transmission.
16 (5 pts) Which of the following limitations apply to the SFST as a model of driver impairment? MTF
A) The SFST lacks baseline data (performance when sober) for each person
B) The SFST does not address mental faculties
C) Performance on the SFST is affected by many factors not related to coordination, such as a personÕs build, their shoes, etc.
D) Breath alcohol concentration may differ from blood concentration
E) SFST scoring is somewhat subjective.
17 (5 pts) Which of the following statements are true? MTF
A) The ability to administer the SFST in the field with no equipment renders it a convenient model.
B) The horizontal gaze nystagmus (HGN) test is administered to test mental faculties, whereas the other two tests (walk and turn, one leg stand) are administered to assess just physical faculties (coordination).
C) For the goal of assessing whether a driver is actually impaired (as opposed to legally impaired), the SFST is a more accurate model of performance than is the BAC.
D) The SFST includes such tasks as counting backwards and touching oneÕs nose while eyes are closed.
18 (4 pts) Which limitations apply to Ôback calculationsÕ of blood alcohol concentration (BAC) as a model to determine whether a driver exceeded 0.08% when stopped by the police. (The goal here is to determine whether someone exceeded the 0.08% limit at the time they were stopped driving)? MTF
A) There are no data on how fast alcohol is cleared from the body
B) The back calculation does not account for many factors that may affect alcohol clearance (such as food in stomach, individual differences in metabolism, type of alcohol consumed).
C) Different people may be differently impaired at the same level of BAC.
D) The test does not measure impairment per se.
R0 = bS/(r+d),
b Ð infection rate parameter
S Ð number of susceptible individuals in population
r Ð recovery rate of infected individuals
d Ð death rate of infected individuals
19. (5pts) The basic reproductive number (R0) is a model of the spread of an infectious agent. Which of the following are true? Use the formula given above. (MTF)
A) Use of masks would increase b and increase R0.
B) Vaccinating people would have no impact on this formula, because the formula does not include a term for vaccinated people.
C) The epidemic threshold is the time at which a disease is declared to be an epidemic Ð how long after its introduction to the population. The formula above is used to determine that time.
D) Recalling the table of R0 values, the R0 for a disease is typically estimated as a single number that applies across the different social contexts
E) If R0 exceeds 1/10, it means that the disease can spread epidemically in the human population.
20 (4 pts) Which points about infectious diseases were covered in class or the book? MTF
A) The single main ÔfearÕ issue with any infectious disease is how severe the infection is, such as the mortality rate.
B) The reason we have not been successful in eradicating many diseases is that the vaccines are not good enough. If all vaccines were as good as the smallpox vaccine, we would be able to eliminate other diseases as easily as we eliminated smallpox.
C) For most diseases, the basic reproductive number is close to 1.5.
D) We suggested that infections of bird flu (H5N1) and swine flu (H1N1) had similar death rates.
21 (4 pts) Key code AB. Bubble A and B on #21 of your scantron to indicate which version of the test you have; do not fill in any other bubbles. Correctly bubble in your EID and name in the appropriate blanks, and put your name on this form.