First Day Opinion Survey 2004




Strong consensus:

1st bar (blue):  Smoking increases lung cancer

2nd bar:  Drunk driving increases car accident rates

3rd bar:  Earth orbits sun

4th bar (lt green):  Earth is spherical







Moderate consensus:

1st bar (blue):  Vaccinations reduce a personŐs risk of getting a disease

2nd bar:  Cell phone use increases car accident rates

3rd bar:  Earth is billions of years old

4th bar:  More young are born than can survive

5th bar (purple):  Order is created at expense of energy








Moderate consensus 2:

1st bar (blue):  Penicillin kills bacteria

2nd bar:  DNA typing is >99% reliable

3rd bar:  Several convicts have been later proven innocent

4th bar:  Evolution of man

5th bar (purple):  Life = chemical reactions





Moderate consensus of untruth:

1st bar (blue):  Eyewitness ID >99% reliable

2nd bar:  lottery odds depend on your choice of number

3rd bar:  Humans have been cloned

4th bar (lt green):  Fairies real









Moderate consensus (of untruth) 2:

1st bar (blue): AIDS was genetically engineered

2nd bar:  Astrology predicts future

3rd bar:  Astrologists win lotteries

4th bar (lt green):  Science will be able to prove/disprove God









1st bar (blue): Irradiated foods contain residual radiation

2nd bar:  Penicillin kills viruses

3rd bar:  Most plants are safe to eat

4th bar:  Scientific journals true

5th bar (orange): Drug companies only market improved drugs





Variable 2:

1st bar (blue): Sherlock Holmes was fictional

2nd bar:  Govt agencies ensure medical practices benefit public

3rd bar:  Physicians always act in patientŐs best interest

4th bar:  Higher crime rates on full moons

5th bar (orange): Ghosts are real












Variable 3:

1st bar (blue): Communication with dead

2nd bar:  AIDS came from chimps

3rd bar:  Human activities at expense of other forms of life

4th bar (lt green):  Overpopulation most serious threat to humans







Effect of context:

1st bar (blue): Aliens have been here

2nd bar (red):  GovtŐs have concealed evidence that aliens have been here